文章摘要
邓梦静,罗绒战堆.西藏高等教育入学率影响因素实证研究[J].民族学刊,2019,10(3):69-76, 123-125
西藏高等教育入学率影响因素实证研究
An Empirical Study on the Factors Influencing the Enrollment Rate of Higher Education in Tibet
  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-9391.2019.03.10
中文关键词: 西藏  高等教育  影响因素  主成分分析  回归分析
英文关键词: Tibet  higher education  influencing factors  principal component analysis  regression analys
基金项目:
作者单位
邓梦静 四川大学社会发展与西部开发研究院 
罗绒战堆 四川大学社会发展与西部开发研究院 
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中文摘要:
      自1985年开始,西藏自治区开始对义务教育阶段农牧民子女实行“三包”政策,到2006年,第一批义务教育的学生进入大学。但到目前为止,西藏高等教育入学率仍然偏低。本文选取了社会经济、家庭生计、学校教育、价值观念、环境交通等五个方面11个指标,运用主成分分析、回归分析法进行研究,通过实证研究和定量研究,发现社会经济发展水平,对家庭生计类型和收入水平具有显著影响,对教育支出水平具有重要影响,价值观念改变是重要环节,环境交通改善推动作用仍然不足。
英文摘要:
      After the American scholar Martin Trow advanced the theory of mass higher education, it brought about many repercussions. Chinese scholars believed that no matter if looked at from the demand level of the era of knowledge and economy or from the transformation of the economic growth mode and the importance of national cultural quality, mass higher education was an important choice for realizing the sustainable development of China’s economy and society. In the 21st century, individuals who master high-tech can only be cultivated by universities. If China only has a small pool of people with a bachelor’s degree or higher, the country will be at a disadvantage in the arena of fierce international competition. If we look behind the increased enrolment rate of higher education, we can see that it actually reflects a large change within the context of the development of education at the time. In 2016, the“Report of the State Council on the Work of Reform and Development of Higher Education” mentioned that mass higher education in China continued to increase. In 2015, there were 2,852 schools of higher education in the country, with 36.47 million students, thus, reaching a gross enrollment rate of 40%. Although in the “11th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Education in the Tibet Autonomous Region and the Vision for 2020 Development Goals”, it was officially determined that the gross enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet in 2007 needed to reach 15%, which is the entry stage for mass higher education, and that the target of 20% gross enrollment in higher education needed to be met in 2010. However, over the years, according to the figures found in the statistical yearbook of Tibet, the gross enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet Autonomous Region in 2015 was only 12.28%. It can be seen that the enrollment rate of higher education in the Tibet Autonomous Region not only failed to meet the expected development goals, but also lags far behind the national level of higher education. Since 1985, the Tibet Autonomous Region implemented a boarding system model for primary and secondary schools in the agricultural and pastoral areas, together with the “three guarantees” policy. This is a policy which covers the food, accommodation, and tuition fees for children of farmers and herdsmen during the years of compulsory education. By 2014, the free “three guarantees” for 15 years of compulsory education (kindergarten, primary, junior middle and high school) was implemented in the whole region, and the annual student subsidy standard was raised to 2900RMB. Thus, in theory, enrollment in higher education in Tibet should have been guaranteed to some extent. However, in fact, the phenomenon of “one high and four lows” (high enrollment rate, but low rates of “consolidation”, completion, qualification, and graduation) is very prominent. Many scholars, have studied this phenomenon, and found that higher education in Tibet is not only restricted by the level of economic development, but also is influenced by many other factors. However, most of these studies are based on an analysis of the literature or field interviews. Therefore, this paper starts with empirical analysis. Through the SPSS, Eviews and other statistical software, using principal component analysis and regression analysis to process the data, it studied and analyzed the specific factors that affect the enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet Autonomous Region. According to the results of this empirical research, the following can be noted: 1) Socio-economic development has a significant impact on the enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet. The elasticity coefficient of per capita GDP is 1.676475, and the per capita explanatory variable is the first in the ranking of the elasticity coefficient of higher education enrollment rate. This indicates that the relationship between per capita GDP and Tibetan higher education enrollment rate is very close. This further indicates that it is necessary to raise the level of social and economic development, and further consolidate the economic base in order to increase the enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet. The more developed the social economy in Tibet, the more opportunities there will be for young people to receive higher education. 2) The development of family livelihood is closely related to the enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet. The elasticity coefficient of per capita disposable income is -0.786648, which indicates that there is a negative correlation between per capita disposable income and higher education enrolment rate in Tibet. Of course, this does not mean that the lower the per capita disposable income, the higher the enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet. The reason for this phenomenon is due to the special historical background of Tibet and the customs and traditions of the Tibetan people. Because the local Tibetans do not value higher education, even an increase in their disposable income will not necessarily prompt them to rapidly increase their investment in higher education (Luorong zhandui, 2008). The per capita disposable income is the explanatory variable in the first principal factor. The load factor is as high as 0.951, and the coefficient of influence coefficient ranks the fourth, which indicates that per capita disposable income is significantly related to the enrollment rate of higher education, and that it still plays an important role in promoting higher education enrollment rate. 3) Education expenditure is an important factor affecting Tibet’s higher education. The elasticity coefficient of education expenditure as a ratio of fiscal expenditure is -0.385307. This is because the ratio of education expenditure in the Tibet Autonomous Region to the government’s fiscal expenditure has been decreasing year by year. According to the Tibet Statistical Yearbook, the ratio of education expenditure in 1994 and 2015 accounted for 19.82422326 and 11.73943162 of government financial expenditure respectively. That is, although the total annual education expenditure increases year by year, the annual ratio of education expenditure to fiscal expenditure in Tibet is decreasing year by year. Moreover, the impact coefficient of education expenditure ranks fifth from the bottom, which shows that the education expenditure of the Tibetan Autonomous Region is still insufficient in general, and that Tibet should enhance the government’s investment in educational technology and the degree of policy inclination. The coefficient of elasticity of the number of ordinary secondary schools and the average number of students per teacher is 0.5409 and 0.8008, both of which belong to the explanatory variables of the first and second principal factors, and their influence coefficient ranks the third and fifth. This indicates that these two items are highly correlated with the enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet. There is a positive correlation between the average number of students per teacher and the enrollment rate of higher education. This is because the number of Tibetan students attending school on time is relatively small. The Tibet Autonomous Region is sparsely populated, and the students are dispersed. According to the Tibet Statistical Yearbook, the number of students for whom a teacher bears responsibility does did not exceed 20. Therefore, the higher the number of students per teacher is, the higher the number of students attend the school. This reflects the particularity of education in Tibet. So, the government of Tibet should, based on local realities, formulate relevant plans according to the specific conditions so as to promote the construction of school education. 4) The change of values is an important factor affecting the enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet. The elasticity coefficient of the enrollment rate of school-age children in Tibet is -0.839864 According to the Tibet Statistical Yearbook, the enrollment rate of Tibetan school-age children in 1994 and 2015 was 68.7% and 99.7% respectively. This shows that local Tibetans are paying more and more attention to basic education and that the implementation of compulsory education in Tibet has been very significant. However, the enrollment rate of higher education has only slowly increased or even stagnated. Because the value concept belongs to the explanatory variable in the second principal factor, the load factor is higher, and the influence coefficient ranks the second. This shows that the value concept is still an important factor that affects the enrollment rate of higher education in Tibet. So the Tibet Autonomous Region should continue to promote the change of ideas and build an overall cultural environment suitable for the development of education. 5) The environment and communication and transportation play an insufficient role in promoting the higher education enrollment rate in Tibet. According to the empirical research, the elasticity coefficient of highway mileage is -0.513056. The reason for this result might be that although the Tibet Autonomous Region has invested heavily in infrastructure construction in recent years, and the mileage of highways has increased substantially, the growth rate of higher education has been slow, which leads to a negative correlation between the two. The elasticity coefficient of urbanization rate is 0.207864, and it belongs to the explanatory variable in the first principal factor, and the load factor is high. This indicates that the rate of urbanization has a greater impact on the enrollment rate of higher education. However, the rankings of the two factors in the impact coefficient are the third and six from the bottom, indicating that infrastructure construction in the Tibet Autonomous Region is still developing slowly, and the degree of urban development is still low. It can be seen that increasing infrastructure investment and promoting urbanization are the urgent needs for improving higher education enrollment in Tibet.
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